Communication report regarding the incidences of drought conditions in Poland

Year: 2018; period: 03 (11.IV - 10.VI)

The Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation – State Research Institute, in accordance with an Act of the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development has developed the climatic water balance values for all 2478 Polish local districts (gminas) and, on the basis of soil categories, calculated the current risk of agricultural drought for the following crops: winter and spring cereals, rape and turnip rape, sugar beet, fruit shrubs and trees, and strawberries.

In the third reporting period, i.e. from April 11th to June 10th 2018, IUNG-PIB stated agricultural drought conditions in Poland.

The mean of Climatic Water Balance values, which are the basis for assessing the risk of agricultural drought, was negative and reached -179 mm. In relation to the previous reporting period it has dropped by 19.5 mm.

The lowest CWB values in this sixty-day reporting period were recorded in the Kaszubian Coast, ranging from -220 to -229 mm. Slightly lower values, between -210 and -219 mm were recorded in Polesie Lubelskie. A considerable water deficiency ranging from -200 to -209 mm was recorded in Lubelska Upland, Sandomierska Basin, Podlaska and Szczecińska Lowlands and in Słowińskie Coast. Water deficiency exceeding 170 mm was recorded in the majority of the country.

In the current reporting period drought occurs in the following crops:

  • spring cereal,
  • winter cereal,
  • fruit shrubs,
  • strawberries,
  • fruit trees,
  • rape and turnip rape.

The number of all local districts (gminas) in Poland at risk of agricultural drought (%) is presented in Table 1.

Table 1. Number of local districts (gminas) at risk of agricultural drought and the share of the area at risk in the country (%)

No.Crop Number of local districts (gminas) at riskShare of local districts (gminas) at risk in Poland [%]
1.Spring cereals228792.29
2.Winter cereals218588.18
3.Fruit shrubs213186.00
4.Strawberries209984.71
5.Fruit trees136555.08
6.Rape and turnip rape 186 7.51

The potential area at risk of agricultural drought in Poland is shown in Table 2.

Table 2. The area at risk of agricultural drought according to crops

No.CropThe arable area at risk of agricultural drought [%]
1.Spring cereals64.67
2.Fruit shrubs49.44
3.Winter cereals48.97
4.Strawberries47.67
5.Fruit trees17.33
6.Rape and turnip rape 1.15

In comparison to the previous reporting period, there was a change in the number of local districts (gminas) at risk of agricultural drought - presented in Table 3.

Table 3.

No.CropPercentage
1.Fruit trees+31.67
2.Spring cereals+0.09
3.Winter cereals-1.12
4.Fruit shrubs-2.70
5.Strawberries-3.99

In comparison to the previous reporting period, there was a change in the area of arable land at risk of agricultural drought – presented in Table 4.

Table 4.

No.CropPercentage
1.Spring cereals+15.77
2.Fruit trees+12.46
3.Winter cereals+11.69
4.Fruit shrubs+10.14
5.Strawberries +8.37

In the third reporting period from April 11th to June 10th 2018 the highest risk of agricultural drought occurred for spring cereals. In Poland agricultural drought occurred in all voivodeships, 10 of them recorded drought in all the local districts (gminas). Drought occurred in 2285 local districts (gminas) i.e. 92.29% of all the local districts in Poland, in the area of 64.67% of arable land.

Particularly large areas affected by drought were in podlaskie, wielkopolskie, lubelskie, pomorskie, mazowieckie, lubulskie, kujawsko-pomorskie and zachodniopomorskie voivodeships (75-85 % of arable land in these voivodeships). Table 5 presents detailed data on drought occurrence in particular voivodeshpis.

Table 5. Agricultural drought in spring cereals

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1.kujawsko-pomorskie144144100.0075.68
2.lubelskie213213100.0082.82
3.lubuskie8282100.0079.19
4.łódzkie177177100.0059.70
5.mazowieckie314314100.0081.67
6.podlaskie118118100.0085.35
7.świętokrzyskie102102100.0058.86
8.warmińsko-mazurskie116116100.0058.53
9.wielkopolskie226226100.0084.27
10.zachodniopomorskie114114100.0077.88
11.pomorskie12312097.5682.75
12.opolskie716895.7724.72
13.podkarpackie16013986.8830.49
14.dolnośląskie16913881.6633.12
15.śląskie16710965.2725.55
16.małopolskie18210758.797.05

In the current reporting period there was also a high risk of agricultural drought for winter cereals, recorded in all the voivodeships, in 9 of them reaching 100% of the local districts (gminas). In Poland agricultural drought occurred in 2185 local districts (gminas) i.e. 88.18% of all local districts in the country, in the area of 48.97% of arable land.

Particularly large areas affected by drought were in wielkopolskie, pomorskie, mazowieckie, lubuskie, podlaskie, zachodniopomorskie, kujawsko-pomorskie and lubelskie voivodeships (51.8 - 73.6% of arable land in these voivodeships). Table 6 presents detailed data on drought occurrence in particular voivodeshpis.

Table 6. Agricultural drought in winter cereals

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1.mazowieckie314314100.0066.13
2.wielkopolskie226226100.0073.55
3.lubelskie213213100.0051.79
4.kujawsko-pomorskie144144100.0057.40
5.podlaskie118118100.0059.52
6.warmińsko-mazurskie116116100.0038.92
7.zachodniopomorskie114114100.0057.43
8.świętokrzyskie102102100.0042.70
9.lubuskie8282100.0065.46
10.łódzkie17717498.3144.26
11.pomorskie12312097.5669.48
12.opolskie716287.3211.18
13.podkarpackie16012578.1224.93
14.dolnośląskie16912674.5628.36
15.śląskie1677746.1113.04
16.małopolskie1827239.564.87

A high risk of agricultural drought occurred also for fruit shrubs, recorded in all the voivodeships, in 9 of them reaching 100% of the local districts (gminas). In Poland agricultural drought occurred in 2131 local districts (gminas) i.e. 86.00% of all local districts in the country, in the area of 49.44% of arable land.

Particularly large areas affected by drought were in wielkopolskie, pomorskie, lubuskie, mazowieckie, podlaskie, lubelskie, zachodniopomorskie and kujawsko-pomorskie voivodeships (57.1-73.1% of arable land). Table 7 presents detailed data on drought occurrence in particular voivodeshpis.

Table 7. Agricultural drought in fruit shrubs

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1.kujawsko-pomorskie144144100.0057.14
2.lubelskie213213100.0061.71
3.lubuskie8282100.0063.17
4.mazowieckie314314100.0066.84
5.podlaskie118118100.0062.72
6.świętokrzyskie102102100.0044.87
7.warmińsko-mazurskie116116100.0039.53
8.wielkopolskie226226100.0073.07
9.zachodniopomorskie114114100.0057.00
10.pomorskie12312097.5670.87
11.łódzkie17716291.5336.92
12.opolskie715881.699.95
13.podkarpackie16012376.8825.00
14.dolnośląskie16912372.7827.92
15.śląskie1675633.538.90
16.małopolskie1826032.974.54

In the current reporting period there was a particularly high risk of agricultural drought for strawberries, recorded in all the voivodeships, in 8 of them reaching 100% of the local districts (gminas). In Poland agricultural drought occurred in 2099 local districts (gminas) i.e. 84.71% of all local districts in the country, in the area of 47.67% of arable land.

Particularly large areas affected by drought were in wielkopolskie, pomorskie, mazowieckie, podlaskie, lubuskie, lubelskie, kujawsko-pomorskie and zachodniopomorskie voivodeships (53.6-71.6% of arable land). Table 8 presents detailed data on drought occurrence in particular voivodeshpis.

Table 8. Agricultural drought in strawberries

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1.kujawsko-pomorskie144144100.0055.80
2.lubelskie213213100.0059.45
3.lubuskie8282100.0059.47
4.mazowieckie314314100.0065.11
5.podlaskie118118100.0061.06
6.świętokrzyskie102102100.0043.09
7.warmińsko-mazurskie116116100.0037.96
8.zachodniopomorskie114114100.0053.65
9.wielkopolskie22622599.5671.65
10.pomorskie12312097.5670.50
11.łódzkie17715185.3132.91
12.opolskie715374.658.24
13.podkarpackie16011873.7524.61
14.dolnośląskie16912372.7827.04
15.śląskie1675130.547.46
16.małopolskie1825530.224.04

In this reporting period the risk of agricultural drought increased significantly for fruit trees. Drought was recorded in 14 voivodeships, in 1366 local districts (gminas) i.e. 55.08% of all local districts in the country, in the area of 17.33% of arable land. In podlaskie voivodeship drought was recorded in all the local districts.

Table 9. Agricultural drought in fruit trees

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1.podlaskie118118100.0043.82
2.lubelskie21320897.6537.02
3.pomorskie12311996.7536.24
4.kujawsko-pomorskie14411982.6413.80
5.warmińsko-mazurskie1169279.3111.10
6.mazowieckie31424176.7526.15
7.zachodniopomorskie1148271.9316.56
8.wielkopolskie22614162.3915.30
9.świętokrzyskie1026260.7813.42
10.dolnośląskie1697041.426.11
11.podkarpackie1606540.6212.45
12.lubuskie823036.597.65
13.łódzkie177179.601.86
14.małopolskie18210.550.06

In the current reporting period agricultural drought affected also rape and turnip rape in 8 voivodeships in Poland. Agricultural drought in these crops occurred in 186 local districts (gminas), i.e. 7.51% of all local district in the country, in the area of 1.15% of arable land. Table 10 presents detailed data on drought occurrence in particular voivodeshpis.

Table 10. Agricultural drought in rape and turnip rape

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1.lubelskie21310448.837.63
2.pomorskie1233730.086.46
3.zachodniopomorskie1141513.160.94
4.podlaskie1181210.170.57
5.świętokrzyskie10287.840.20
6.podkarpackie16085.000.67
7.kujawsko-pomorskie14410.690.00
8.mazowieckie31410.320.01

April was warm this year, the temperatures ranged from 9 to more than 14°C. The highest temperatures were recorded in the south (above 14°C), and exceeded the multiannual norm by 6°C. The further to the north, the lower was the temperature: ranging from 8 to 11°C, however, it was still 2-3°C higher than the multiannual norm.

May was also very warm. In Wielkopolskie and Mazurskie Lake Districts the air temperature exceeded the norm by 4°C, and in the rest of the country by 3-4°C. The highest temperatures were recorded in the centre of Poland, ranging from 17 to more than 18°C, and in the cast majority of the country between 16 and 17°C. In the south the temperatures were the lowest, from 13 to 26°C.

The first decade of June was warm as well. In the western part of the country temperatures reached 20 to even 20.°C. In the rest of the areas temperatures were also considerably high, between 17 to 20.5°C.

In April particularly low precipitation (below 10 mm) was recorded in the Kraków-Częstochowa and Silesian Uplands. Low precipitation (10-20 mm) was also recorded in Lesser Poland and Masovian Lowlands and in Sandomierska Basin, where they constituted 20-40% of the multiannual norm. Only in the north and east precipitation was more intense, from 40 to 60 mm and constituted 100-140% of the norm. In the vast majority of the country precipitation ranged from 20 to 40 mm, i.e. 40-100% of the norm.

In May precipitation varied significantly, from very scarce (20-30 mm) in Lubusz Land, Greater Poland Lake District and Podlasie, to very intense (60-100 mm) rainfalls in Lesser Poland Upland. In the vast majority of the country precipitation was 10-50% lower than the norm. In Lubusz Land and the central part of Pomeranian Lake District precipitation in May constituted 30-50% of the norm, while in the Lesser Poland Upland it was even 90-110%.

In the first decade of June precipitation varied across the country, from very low in the east of Poland (below 5 to 10 mm) to considerably high in the west and south of the country (10 to more than 50 mm).

April, May and the first decade of June were characterised by particularly high temperatures and insolation (especially in the north of the country). The values of the abovementioned meteorological factors were considerably higher than multiannual norms. At the same time precipitation in this period was considerably low, which caused even bigger decrease of CWB values meaning there was severe water deficiency for plants. At the moment considerable water deficiency leads to agricultural drought affecting larger areas. It should be mentioned that drought occurs in six groups and species of plants. In this reporting period it affected one more: rape and turnip rape. Such a big water deficiency affecting spring and winter cereals, fruit shrubs and trees, strawberries, rape and turnip rape means that yield will be reduced this year by at least 20% at the local district level in comparison to the yield obtained in average multiannual weather conditions.

Executive Director

Prof. dr hab. Wiesław Aleksander Oleszek

Report prepared by:

Dr hab. Andrzej Doroszewski, prof. nadzw.

Dr hab. Rafał Pudełko

Dr Katarzyna Żyłowska

Mgr Piotr Koza

Mgr Elżbieta Wróblewska