Communication report regarding the incidences of drought conditions in Poland

Year: 2018; period: 07 (21.V - 20.VII)

The Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation – State Research Institute, in accordance with an Act of the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development has developed the climatic water balance values for all 2478 Polish local districts (gminas) and, on the basis of soil categories, calculated the current risk of agricultural drought for the following crops: winter and spring cereals, maize for grain and maize for silage, potato, sugar beet, hops, tobacco, ground vegetables, fruit shrubs and trees, strawberries and legumes (fabacea).

In the seventh reporting period, i.e. from May 21st to July 20th 2018, IUNG-PIB stated agricultural drought conditions in Poland.

The mean of Climatic Water Balance values, which are the basis for assessing the risk of agricultural drought, was negative and reached -121.3 mm. In relation to the previous reporting period it has risen by 56.7 mm.

The Climatic Water Balanc values have risen significantly in the whole country, in some regions even by more than 100 mm. The lowest CWB values were still recorded in Poznań and the surrounding area, however, water deficiency in that part of the country decreased by 70 mm and it currently ranges from -190 to -199 mm. A very high water deficiency ranging from -160 to -189 mm was still recorded in the Lowlands: Wielkopolska, Szczecińska, and in Żarnowiecka Upland. Similar water deficiency occurred also in Lubusz Land and in Silesia-Łużyce Lowland. In the rest of Poland water deficiency ranged from -100 to 140 mm and in the southern regions it was close to zero.

In the current reporting period drought occurs in the following monitored crops:

  • Fruit shrubs,
  • Legumes (fabacea),
  • Spring cereals,
  • Tobacco,
  • Winter cereals

The number of all local districts (gminas) in Poland at risk of agricultural drought (%) is presented in Table 1.

Table 1. Number of local districts (gminas) at risk of agricultural drought and the share of the area at risk in the country (%)

No.Crop Number of local districts (gminas) at riskShare of local districts (gminas) at risk in Poland [%]
1.Fruit shrubs542.18
2.Legumes (fabacea)542.18
3.Spring cereals220.89
4.Tobacco 40.16
5.Winter cereals 20.08

The potential area at risk of agricultural drought in Poland is shown in Table 2.

Table 2. The area at risk of agricultural drought according to crops

No.CropThe arable area at risk of agricultural drought [%]
1.Fruit shrubs0.21
2.Legumes (fabacea)0.21
3.Spring cereals0.08
4.Tobacco0.01
5.Winter cereals 0.005

In the seventh reporting period, from May 21st to July 20th 2018, the highest risk of agricultural drought occurred for fruit shrubs. In Poland agricultural drought in fruit shrubs was recorded in 5 voivodeships, in 54 local districts (gminas), i.e. 2.18% of all the local districts in Poland, in the area of 0.21% of arable land.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in fruit shrubs in particular voivodeships are presented in table 3.

Table 3. Agricultural drought in fruit shrubs

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1.lubuskie821113.412.15
2.pomorskie1231411.380.51
3.wielkopolskie22619 8.411.11
4.zachodniopomorskie114 5 4.390.09
5.dolnośląskie169 5 2.960.05

Similarly, agricultural drought was again recorded for legumes (fabacea). Agricultural drought was recorded in 5 voivodeships, in 54 local districts (gminas), i.e. 2.18% of all the local districts in Poland, in the area of 0.21% of arable land.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in legumes (fabacea) in particular voivodeships are presented in table 4.

Table 4. Agricultural drought in legumes (fabacea)

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Udział powierzchni zagrożonej [%]
1.lubuskie821113.412,15
2.pomorskie1231411.380,51
3.wielkopolskie22619 8.411,11
4.zachodniopomorskie114 5 4.390,09
5.dolnośląskie169 5 2.960,05

A high risk of agricultural drought also occurred for spring cereals. In Poland drought in spring cereals was recorded in 4 voivodeships.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in spring cereals in particular voivodeships are presented in table 5.

Table 5. Agricultural drought in spring cereals

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1.lubuskie8256.100.15
2.wielkopolskie226104.420.56
3.pomorskie12354.070.27
4.zachodniopomorskie11421.750.05

In the current reporting period a risk of drought was also recorded for tobacco. It occurred in 2 voivodeships, in 4 local districts (gminas), i.e. 0.16% of all local districts in the country, in the area of 0.01% of arable land.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in tobacco in particular voivodeships are presented in table 6.

Table 6. Agricultural drought in tobacco

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1.pomorskie12332.440.10
2.wielkopolskie22610.440.00

A risk of agricultural drought was also recorded for winter cereals. Drought occurred in 2 local districts (gminas), i.e. 0.08% of all local districts in the country.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in winter cereals in particular voivodeships are presented in table 7.

Table 7. Agricultural drought in winter cereals

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1.pomorskie12321.630.03

May was particularly warm this year, with temperatures reaching from 16 to 18°C. In Wielkopolskie and Mazurskie Lake Districts the air temperature exceeded the norm by 4°C, and in the rest of the country by 3-4°C.

The first decade of June was warm as well. In the western part of the country temperatures reached from 20 to even more than 20.5°C. In the rest of the areas temperatures were also considerably high, between 17 - 20.5°C. The second decade of June was similar, temperatures reached 19 to 20.5°C. Only in the north of the country it was slightly colder, 16.5 to 19°C. The third decade of the month was much colder in all the areas. In the majority of the country temperatures ranged from 15 to 16°C. Only in the north-eastern and north-western regions it was slightly warmer, from 16.5 to 17.5 C.

The first decade of July was not very warm either, with temperatures reaching from 17 to 19°C. The lowest temperatures were recorded in the north-eastern part of the country: 16.5-17°C, and the highest in the south-western regions: 19-19.5°C. In the second decade of the month temperature distribution changed and the highest were recorded to the north-east, ranging from 20 to 20.5°C, while the lowest temperatures occurred to the south-west, from 17 to 19°C.

In May precipitation varied significantly, from very scarce (20-30 mm) in Lubusz Land, Greater Poland Lake District and Podlasie, to very intense rainfalls (60-100 mm) in Lesser Poland Upland. In the vast majority of the country precipitation was 10-50% lower than the norm. In Lubusz Land and the central part of Pomeranian Lake District precipitation in May constituted 30-50% of the norm, while in the Lesser Poland Upland it was even 90-110% of the norm.

In the first decade of June precipitation varied across the country, from very low in the east of Poland (below 5 to 10 mm) to considerably high in the west and south (10 to more than 50 mm). In the second decade precipitation was very scarce (up to 5 mm) or there was even a complete lack of rainfall in the north of the country. In the south of Poland precipitation ranged from 5 to 50 mm (especially in the south-eastern part of the country).

In the third decade of the month precipitation was more intense, reaching 15-50 mm in the majority of the country or even exceeding 50 mm in the south. Only in the north-western regions precipitation was scarce, reaching 5 to 15 mm, and there were still some areas with a complete absence of rainfall.

The first decade of July was characterized by very scarce precipitation in the majority of the country, reaching the maximum of 10 mm, or absence of precipitation in some regions. Only in the eastern and western regions of Poland it reached 10-20 mm. In the second decade, on the other hand, precipitation was very intense, reaching even 200 mm. Particularly intense rainfalls occurred in the western part of Pomeranian an Greater Poland Lake Districts, ranging from 100 to 200 mm. Slightly lower precipitation values were recorded in Lesser Poland and Silesian Lowlands, ranging from 75 to 150 mm. Only in the western and south-eastern regions precipitation was less intense, below 50 mm.

May and the two decades of June were characterised by particularly high temperatures and insolation (especially in the north of the country). The values of the abovementioned meteorological factors were considerably higher than multiannual norms. At the same time precipitation in this period was considerably low. The third decade of June and the first decade of July, however, were colder. In the first decade of June precipitation was quite abundant in the majority of areas, but in the first decade of July it was lower, which resulted in a considerable increase of the mean of Climatic Water Balance values. It also contributed to lowering the water deficiency for many species and groups of plants. However, water deficiency was still present and resulting in agricultural drought for five of the monitored crops.

The recent athmospheric conditions characterised by intense rainfalls, high air humidity and temperatures caused a problem of grain sprouting, particularly visible in triticale. The current conditions are also favourable for development of fungal diseases in cereals.

Executive Director

Prof. dr hab. Wiesław Aleksander Oleszek

Report prepared by:

Dr hab. Andrzej Doroszewski, prof. nadaw.

Dr hab. Rafał Pudełko

Dr Katarzyna Żyłowska

Mgr Piotr Koza

Mgr Elżbieta Wróblewska