Communication report regarding the incidences of drought conditions in Poland

Year: 2018; period: 09 (11.VI - 10.VIII)

The Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation – State Research Institute, in accordance with an Act of the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development has developed the climatic water balance values for all 2478 Polish local districts (gminas) and, on the basis of soil categories, calculated the current risk of agricultural drought for the following crops: winter and spring cereals, maize for grain and maize for silage, potato, sugar beet, hops, tobacco, ground vegetables, fruit shrubs and trees, strawberries and legumes (fabacea).

In the ninth reporting period, i.e. from June 11th to August 10th, 2018, IUNG-PIB stated agricultural drought conditions in Poland.

The mean of Climatic Water Balance values, which are the basis for assessing the risk of agricultural drought, was negative and reached -110.2 mm. In relation to the previous reporting period it has dropped by 0.9 mm.

In the eastern part of the country the CWB values have risen by 10-20 mm. In the western regions the CWB values dropped by several to even 30 mm. The lowest CWB values were recorded in Poznań and the surrounding area, and in Lubusz Land, reaching -190 to -209 mm. Water deficiency ranging from -170 to -189 mm was recorded in Szczecińska Lowland, Zielonogórska Upland, Trzebnickie Hills, Lubin Upland, and Legnicka Plain. In the rest of the country water deficiency ranged from -100 to 169 mm. In the south of Poland water deficiency was lower and ranged from 0 to -100 mm, apart from Wołomińska, Garwolińska and Łukowska Plains, where it ranged from -110 to -129 mm.

In the current reporting period drought occurs in the following monitored crops:

  • Legumes (fabacea),
  • Fruit shrubs,
  • Potato,
  • Tobacco,
  • Hops,
  • Ground vegetables,
  • Maize for silage,
  • Maize for grain.

The number of all local districts (gminas) in Poland at risk of agricultural drought (%) is presented in Table 1.

Table 1. Number of local districts (gminas) at risk of agricultural drought and the share of the area at risk in the country (%)

No.Crop Number of local districts (gminas) at riskShare of local districts (gminas) at risk in Poland [%]
1.Legumes (fabacea) 2339.40
2.Fruit shrubs2008.07
3.Potato 411.65
4.Tobacco 351.41
5.Hops 160.65
6.Ground vegetables 80.32
7.Maize for silage 80.32
8.Maize for grain 40.16

The potential area at risk of agricultural drought in Poland is shown in Table 2.

Table 2. The area at risk of agricultural drought according to crops

No.CropThe arable area at risk of agricultural drought [%]
1.Legumes (fabacea) 2.08
2.Fruit shrubs1.73
3.Potato 0.24
4.Tobacco0.17
5.Hops 0.04
6.Ground vegetables0.01
7.Maize for silage0.01
8.Maize for grain 0.005

In the ninth reporting period, from June 11th to August 10th 2018, the highest risk of agricultural drought occurred for legumes (fabacea). In Poland agricultural drought in legumes (fabacea) was recorded in 6 voivodeships, in 233 local districts (gminas), i.e. 9.4% of all the local districts in Poland, in the area of 2.08% of arable land.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in legumes (fabacea) in particular voivodeships are presented in table 3.

Table 3. Agricultural drought in legumes (fabacea)

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1.lubuskie827490.2435.52
2.zachodniopomorskie1144337.724.55
3.wielkopolskie2267131.426.17
4.dolnośląskie1693923.081.99
5.pomorskie123 5 4.070.13
6.łódzkie177 1 0.560.03

In the current reporting period drought was also recorded for fruit shrubs. It was recorded in 5 voivodeships, in 200 local districts (gminas), i.e. 8.07% of all the local districts in Poland, in the area of 1.73% of arable land.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in fruit shrubs in particular voivodeships are presented in table 4.

Table 4. Agricultural drought in fruit shrubs

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1.lubuskie827389.0232.39
2.zachodniopomorskie1143833.33 3.25
3.wielkopolskie2265524.34 5.07
4.dolnośląskie1693017.75 1.12
5.pomorskie123 4 3.25 0.08

In the current reporting period a risk of drought was also recorded for potatoes. ). In Poland agricultural drought in potatoes was recorded in 3 voivodeships, in 41 local districts (gminas), i.e. w 1.65% of all the local districts in Poland, in the area of 0.24% of arable land.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in potatoes in particular voivodeships are presented in table 5.

Table 5. Agricultural drought in potatoes

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1.lubuskie 822226.836.07
2.wielkopolskie22615 6.640.61
3.zachodniopomorskie114 4 3.510.06

In the current reporting period a risk of drought was also recorded for tobacco. It occurred in 3 voivodeships, in 35 local districts (gminas), i.e. 1.41% of all local districts in the country, in the area of 0.17% of arable land.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in tobacco in particular voivodeships are presented in table 6.

Table 6. Agricultural drought in tobacco

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1.lubuskie822024.394.36
2.wielkopolskie226125.310.45
3.zachodniopomorskie114 32.630.03

In the current reporting period a risk of drought was also recorded for hops. It occurred in 3 voivodeships, in 16 local districts (gminas), i.e. 0.65% of all local districts in the country, in the area of 0.04% of arable land.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in hops in particular voivodeships are presented in table 7.

Table 7. Agricultural drought in hops

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1.lubuskie82910.980.95
2.wielkopolskie2266 2.650.12
3.zachodniopomorskie1141 0.880.02

In the current reporting period a risk of drought was also recorded for ground vegetables. It occurred in 3 voivodeships, in 8 local districts (gminas), i.e. 0.32% of all local districts in the country, in the area of 0.01% of arable land.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in ground vegetables in particular voivodeships are presented in table 8.

Table 8. Agricultural drought in ground vegetables

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1.lubuskie8256.100.32
2.wielkopolskie22620.880.00
3.zachodniopomorskie11410.880.00

Agricultural drought occurred also in maize for silage. It was recorded in 3 voivodeships, in 8 local districts (gminas), i.e. 0.32% of all local districts in the country, in the area of 0.01% of arable land.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in maize for silage in particular voivodeships are presented in table 9.

Table 9. Agricultural drought in maize for silage

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1.lubuskie8256.100.30
2.wielkopolskie22620.880.00
3.zachodniopomorskie11410.880.00

Agricultural drought occurred also in maize for grain, in 4 local districts (gminas) in lubuskie voivodeship, i.e. 0.16% of all local districts in the country.

Detailed data on drought occurrence in maize for grain in particular voivodeships are presented in table 10.

Table 10. Agricultural drought in maize for grain

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1.lubuskie8244.880.09

June was very warm in the majority of areas in Poland, with temperatures exceeding 18°C and in Masovia, Lubusz Land, Greater Poland and Lower Silesia even 19°C. The air temperature exceeded the multiannual norm by 2-3°C. Only in the north of the country it was slightly lower (but still warm) reaching 16-18°C and exceeding the norm by 1-2°C.

The first decade of July was not very warm, with temperatures reaching from 17 to 19°C. The lowest temperatures were recorded in the north-eastern part of the country: 16.5-17°C, and the highest in the south-western regions: 19-19.5°C. In the second decade of the month temperature distribution changed and the highest were recorded to the north-east, ranging from 20 to 20.5°C, while the lowest temperatures occurred to the south-west, from 17 to 19°C. The third decade of July was hot in the whole country. In the vast areas of western and central Poland the air temperature ranged from 22.5°C to 23.5°C. In the rest of the country it was also very warm, from 21.5 to 22.5°C.

The first decade of August was very warm, particularly in Lubusz Land, where temperatures reached from 25 to more than 25.5°C. The further to the east the lower was the temperature, reaching 22°C in the eastern part of the country.

In June precipitation was very low in the north-western and north-eastern regions of Poland, reaching 20 to 30 mm, which constituted 30-50% of the multiannual norm. In the vast majority of the country precipitation ranged from 30 to 60 mm, i.e. 50-70% of the norm. Only to the east of Poland precipitation was more intense, from 60 to 100 mm, or even 200 mm and constituted 70-130% of the norm.

The first decade of July was characterized by very scarce precipitation in the majority of the country, reaching the maximum of 10 mm, or absence of precipitation in some regions. Only in the eastern and western regions of Poland it reached 10-20 mm. In the second decade, on the other hand, precipitation was very intense, reaching even 200 mm. Particularly intense rainfalls occurred in the western part of Pomeranian an Greater Poland Lake Districts, ranging from 100 to 200 mm. Slightly lower precipitation values were recorded in Lesser Poland and Silesian Lowlands, ranging from 75 to 150 mm. Only in the western and south-eastern regions precipitation was less intense, below 50 mm. In the third decade of July in the western part of the country precipitation was very scarce, from below 5 to 10 mm, while in the north-eastern and south-eastern regions it was more intense, ranging from 10 to more than 50 mm.

In the first decade of August precipitation varied across the country. In some regions it did not exceed 5 mm, in some there was complete absence of rainfalls. The largest area with very scarce precipitation was in the western part of the country and, to a lesser extent, in the eastern regions, whilst the highest precipitation values (30 to more than 50 mm) were recorded in Lesser Poland Upland and Silesian Beskid.

June was characterised by particularly high temperatures and insolation (especially in the north of the country) and very low precipitation at the same time (apart from the south of Poland). July was also warm but precipitation grew significantly. In August temperatures were even higher and precipitation distribution varied across the country. The mean CWB value in the country slightly dropped, but a more considerable decrease in CWB values occurred in the western part of Poland, whilst an increase occurred in the eastern regions.

Weather conditions in the monitored period have caused an increase of water deficiency in the western part of the country, which led to a growing number of crops affected by drought (increase from 4 to 8 in relation to the previous reporting period). The number of local districts (gminas) affected has also risen from 55 to 178 and the area has grown by 1.86% with water deficiency leading to yield reduction by at least 20% in relation to the yield obtained in average weather conditions. In this reporting period, particularly adverse weather conditions causing agricultural drought occurred in lubuskie, wielkopolskie and zachodniopomorskie voivodeships.

IUNG-PIB Executive Director

Prof. dr hab. Wiesław Aleksander Oleszek

Report prepared by:

Dr hab. Andrzej Doroszewski, prof. nadzw.

Dr hab. Rafał Pudełko

Dr Katarzyna Żyłowska

Mgr Piotr Koza

Mgr Elżbieta Wróblewska