Comment from Agrometeorologist

Communication report regarding the incidences of drought conditions in Poland

The Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation – State Research Institute, in accordance with the Act of the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, has developed the climatic water balance values for all 2477 Polish municipalities (gminas) and, based on soil categories, calculated the current risk of agricultural drought.

In the fourth reporting period, i.e. from April 21st to June 20th, 2021 the average value of Climatic Water Balance (CWB), which is the basis for assessing the risk of agricultural drought, was negative and equalled -108 mm. The average CWB value has decreased by 52 mm in relation to the previous reporting period (April 11th – June 10th).

The highest water deficit, ranging from -170 to -209 mm, was recorded in the Gryfice Plain, Białogard Plain, Nowogard Plain, Drawsko and Ińsk Lake Districts, and in the Łobez Upland. Slightly lower deficit was recorded in the southern part of the Południowowielkopolska Lowland, the Southern Masovia Hills, Western Polesie, the Lubartów Upland, and the Nałęczów Plateau, where it ranged from -160 to -179 mm.

Relatively high water deficit occurred in the Mragowo Lake District, in the northern part of the Kashubian Lake District, and in the eastern part of the Polanów Upland, ranging from -150 to -169 mm. In the rest of the country, water deficit was less severe: from -50 mm to -150 mm.

Based on the current humidity conditions, IUNG-PIB states the occurrence of agricultural drought in the area of Poland.

Agricultural drought occurred in the fifteen following voivodeships:

  • Zachodniopomorskie,
  • Łódzkie,
  • Świętokrzyskie,
  • Wielkopolskie,
  • Lubelskie,
  • Pomorskie,
  • Warmińsko-mazurskie,
  • Podlaskie,
  • Kujawsko-pomorskie,
  • Opolskie,
  • Lubuskie,
  • Mazowieckie,
  • Dolnośląskie,
  • Podkarpackie,
  • Śląskie.

Agricultural drought occurred in eleven crops:

  • Spring cereals,
  • Winter cereals,
  • Fruit shrubs,
  • Strawberries,
  • Rape and turnip rape,
  • Legumes,
  • Maize for grain,
  • Maize for silage,
  • Fruit trees,
  • Tobacco,
  • Ground vegetables.

In the fourth reporting period, from April 21st to June 20th, 2021, the largest area affected by agricultural drought was identified for spring cereals. Drought was recorded in 967 municipalities (39.04% of all municipalities in Poland) in the area of 12.10% of arable land. Detailed data on drought occurrence in spring cereals in particular voivodeships are presented in table 1.

Table 1. Agricultural drought in spring cereals

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1zachodniopomorskie11310895.5861.69
2łódzkie17713777.4033.68
3świętokrzyskie1027371.5713.96
4wielkopolskie22613861.0612.71
5lubelskie21312860.0911.21
6pomorskie1237359.3527.24
7warmińsko-mazurskie1166051.726.89
8podlaskie1184134.756.04
9kujawsko-pomorskie1444329.861.75
10opolskie711825.352.05
11lubuskie821821.953.45
12mazowieckie3146420.384.28
13dolnośląskie1693420.122.55
14podkarpackie1602213.751.62
15śląskie167105.991.21

Agricultural drought was also recorded in winter cereals. It occurred in 628 municipalities (25.35% of all municipalities in Poland) in the area of 7.02% of arable land. Detailed data on drought occurrence in winter cereals in particular voivodeships are presented in table 2.

Table 2. Agricultural drought in winter cereals

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1zachodniopomorskie11310088.5051.79
2łódzkie17710358.1919.93
3pomorskie1236552.8515.13
4świętokrzyskie1025150.007.23
5lubelskie2138640.385.50
6warmińsko-mazurskie1164034.482.96
7wielkopolskie2266830.094.87
8lubuskie821315.851.77
9podlaskie1181815.251.34
10mazowieckie3143912.421.44
11opolskie71811.270.25
12podkarpackie160148.750.87
13kujawsko-pomorskie144117.640.11
14dolnośląskie169116.510.46
15śląskie16710.600.06

Agricultural drought occurred in fruit shrubs as well. It was recorded in 578 municipalities (23.33% of all municipalities in Poland) in the area of 6.73% of arable land. Detailed data on drought occurrence in fruit shrubs in particular voivodeships are presented in table 3.

Table 3. Agricultural drought in fruit shrubs

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1zachodniopomorskie1139886,7353,00
2łódzkie1779955,9319,58
3pomorskie1236351,2216,70
4świętokrzyskie1024847,066,66
5lubelskie2138238,504,66
6warmińsko-mazurskie1163631,032,07
7wielkopolskie2265926,113,67
8lubuskie821214,631,24
9podlaskie1181411,860,65
10opolskie71811,270,17
11mazowieckie3143310,511,17
12podkarpackie160148,750,68
13dolnośląskie16995,330,24
14kujawsko-pomorskie14421,390,02
15śląskie16710,600,03

Agricultural drought was also recorded in strawberries. It occurred in 434 municipalities (17.52% of all municipalities in Poland) in the area of 4.97% of arable land. Detailed data on drought occurrence in strawberries in particular voivodeships are presented in table 4.

Table 4. Agricultural drought in strawberries

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1zachodniopomorskie1139584.0748.78
2łódzkie1778447.4613.48
3pomorskie1235544.7211.09
4świętokrzyskie1023635.293.75
5lubelskie2135626.292.72
6warmińsko-mazurskie1161916.380.55
7wielkopolskie2263615.931.51
8lubuskie8278.540.16
9podkarpackie160138.120.19
10mazowieckie314216.690.54
11opolskie7134.230.03
12podlaskie11843.390.08
13dolnośląskie16942.370.04
14kujawsko-pomorskie14410.690.00

Agricultural drought occurred also in rape and turnip rape. It was recorded in 351 municipalities (14.17% of all municipalities in Poland) in the area of 3.89% of arable land. Detailed data on drought occurrence in rape and turnip rape in particular voivodeships are presented in table 5.

Table 5. Agricultural drought in rape and turnip rape

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1zachodniopomorskie1139180.5340.62
2pomorskie1235141.469.01
3łódzkie1777341.2410.01
4świętokrzyskie1023029.412.83
5lubelskie2134420.661.67
6wielkopolskie2262310.180.85
7warmińsko-mazurskie116108.620.23
8mazowieckie314175.410.33
9podkarpackie16063.750.05
10lubuskie8222.440.04
11opolskie7111.410.01
12dolnośląskie16921.180.01
13kujawsko-pomorskie14410.690.00

Agricultural drought was also recorded in legumes. It occurred in 242 municipalities (9.77% of all municipalities in Poland) in the area of 2.67% of arable land. Detailed data on drought occurrence in legumes in particular voivodeships are presented in table 6.

Table. 6. Agricultural drought in legumes

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1zachodniopomorskie1138877.8832.87
2pomorskie1234536.595.84
3łódzkie1775229.385.44
4świętokrzyskie1021716.671.36
5lubelskie213188.450.26
6wielkopolskie22693.980.25
7warmińsko-mazurskie11643.450.04
8mazowieckie31482.550.10
9opolskie7111.410.01

Agricultural drought occurred also in maize for grain. It was recorded in 145 municipalities (5.85% of all municipalities in Poland) in the area of 0.98% of arable land. Detailed data on drought occurrence in maize for grain in particular voivodeships are presented in table 7.

Table 7. Agricultural drought in maize for grain

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1zachodniopomorskie1138575.2214.34
2pomorskie1232822.761.17
3łódzkie1771810.171.15
4świętokrzyskie10276.860.36
5lubelskie21341.880.03
6mazowieckie31420.640.01
7wielkopolskie22610.440.00

Agricultural drought occurred in maize for silage as well. It was recorded in 145 municipalities (5.85% of all municipalities in Poland) in the area of 0.98% of arable land. Detailed data on drought occurrence in maize for silage in particular voivodeships are presented in table 8.

Table 8. Agricultural drought in maize for silage

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1zachodniopomorskie1138575.2214.34
2pomorskie1232822.761.17
3łódzkie1771810.171.15
4świętokrzyskie10276.860.36
5lubelskie21341.880.03
6mazowieckie31420.640.01
7wielkopolskie22610.440.00

Agricultural drought occurred also in fruit trees. It was recorded in 67 municipalities (2.70% of all municipalities in Poland) in the area of 0.43% of arable land. Detailed data on drought occurrence in fruit trees in particular voivodeships are presented in table 9.

Table 9. Agricultural drought in fruit trees

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1zachodniopomorskie1136557.527.36
2pomorskie12310.810.09
3łódzkie17710.560.00

Agricultural drought occurred in tobacco. It was recorded in 42 municipalities (1.70% of all municipalities in Poland) in the area of 0.16% of arable land. Detailed data on drought occurrence in tobacco in the Zachodniopomorskie voivodeship are presented in table 10.

Table 10. Agricultural drought in tobacco

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1.zachodniopomorskie1134237.172.75

Agricultural drought occurred also in ground vegetables. It was recorded in 42 municipalities (1.70% of all municipalities in Poland) in the area of 0.16% of arable land. Detailed data on drought occurrence in ground vegetables in the Zachodniopomorskie voivodeship are presented in table 11.

Table 11. Agricultural drought in ground vegetables

No.VoivodeshipNumber of local districtsNumber of local districts at riskShare of local districts at risk [%]Share of the area at risk [%]
1.zachodniopomorskie1134237.172.75

This year’s April was the coldest in the last 24 years. Temperatures were low across the country. In the vast area of central Poland, the temperatures recorded were around 6°C. In the north of Poland, in the Lesser Poland Upland, Roztocze, the Sudeten and the Carpathian Foothills it was even colder, from 5 to 6°C, or in places even 4-5°C. In the Sudeten and Carpathian Mountains, temperatures were the lowest and ranged between 1-4°C. This year’s April, in relation to the multiannual norm, was colder in the south-eastern part of the country by 1°C, in the eastern part by 1-2°C, in Central Poland by 2 to 3°C, and in the western regions even by 3-4°C.

May was also cold this year. The lowest temperatures were recorded in the north and south of the country, ranging from 10 to 12°C, and even from 8°C to 10°C in the extreme south. In the vast area of the country temperatures ranged from 12 to 13°C, or more than 13°C in the Sandomierz Basin. Only in the north of Poland and in the south-eastern regions, the temperature remained within the multiannual norm, whilst in the vast majority of the country is was lower than the norm by 1-2°C.

In the first decade of June it was considerably warmer. The highest temperatures were recorded in the wide area extending from central Poland (17-18°C) to the Greater Poland Lake District (18-19°C). Only slightly lower temperatures occurred in the West Pomeranian and Koszalin Lake Districts and in the south-eastern part of Poland, where they ranged from 16 to 17°C. The coldest weather occurred in the south, with temperatures from 12 to 16°C.

In the second decade of June, the lowest temperatures still occurred in the south of Poland, ranging from 12 to 14°C, and the highest were recorded in the western regions, ranging from 15 to more than 16°C. In the rest of the country temperatures ranged from 14 to 15°C.

In April, in the south-eastern part of the country, high precipitation values were recorded, ranging from 60 to 120 mm (i.e. 140% of the multiannual norm). In Central Poland, precipitation was also intense, although less than in the south-eastern part of the country, ranging from 30 to 60 mm and constituting 90-140% of the norm in this area. In the northern regions of Poland, precipitation values were the lowest, ranging from 20 to 30 mm and, in places, even below 20 mm. In these areas, precipitation constituted from 40 to more than 90% of the norm.

In May, precipitation was highly diversified. The lowest precipitation values were recorded in the north-western and south-eastern regions of Poland, ranging from 40 to 60 mm, and constituting 90-100% of the norm, whilst in the Lublin Upland and Western and Volhynian Polesie precipitation in May constituted only 70% of the multiannual norm. Significantly higher values, from 60 to even 120 mm, were recorded in the area extending from south-western to north-eastern parts of the country. High precipitation values, from 100 to more than 200 mm, were recorded in the Sudetes, the Western Beskids and the Carpathians. In the vast majority of the country, precipitation in May constituted from 100 to 150% of the multiannual norm.

In the first decade of June, precipitation was scarce across the country, below 5 mm or none. Only in the Iława Lake District, in the Warmia Plain, the Lubawa Elevation, and in the Uplands: Woźniki-Wieluń, Kraków-Częstochowa, Silesian, in the Central Beskidian Piedmont and the Western Beskidian Foothills and some areas in the Greater Poland Lake District precipitation values were slightly higher, from 5 to 15 mm.

In the second decade of June, in the western part of the country, precipitation was still very scarce: from 5 to 15 mm or none. Whilst in the eastern regions of Poland precipitation values were higher, from 15 to 35 mm, and in the south-western regions even 35 to 70 mm.

In this sixty-day reporting period, from April 21st to June 20th, 2021, the water deficit values have increased significantly across the country (on average by more than 50 mm) in relation to the previous reporting period. Such humidity conditions resulted in agricultural drought occurrence in 15 voivodeships in Poland, that is, all except for Małopolskie.

Definitely, the highest water deficit was identified in the Zachodniopomorskie voivodeship, where drought occurred in 11 crops. Only slightly less severe risk occurred in the Łódzkie and Pomorskie voivodeships, where drought was recorded in nine crops. Among the voivodships with high water shortages for crops are: Świętokrzyskie, Wielkopolskie, Lubelskie and Mazowieckie, where drought was recorded in eight crops. Water shortages were also recoded in Warmińsko-Mazurskie, Podlaskie, Kujawsko-Pomorskie, Opolskie, Lubuskie, Dolnośląskie, Podkarpackie and Śląskie, where drought occurred in six to three crops.

Executive Director

Prof. dr hab. Wiesław Oleszek

Report prepared by: Dr hab. Andrzej Doroszewski, prof. IUNG-PIB, Dr hab. Rafał Pudełko, Dr Katarzyna Żyłowska, Dr Jan Jadczyszyn, Mgr Piotr Koza, Mgr Anna Jędrejek, Mgr Małgorzata Kozak, Adrian Matczuk

Contact
Institute of Soil Science and Plants Cultivation
State Research Institute
ul. Czartoryskich 8, 24-100 Puławy

Zakład Agrometeorologii i Zastosowań Informatyki
phone: 81 4786 752

Zakład Gleboznawstwa Erozji i Ochrony Gruntów
phone: 81 4786 779

W przypadku pytań dotyczących suszy proponujemy kontakt poprzez formularz zapytania, który należy wysłać mailem na adres susza@iung.pulawy.pl

Download the form
Opracowanie IUNG-PIB 2020 na zlecenie Misterstwa Rolnictwa i Rozwoju Wsi